Weekly outlook: “High levels of nervousness, volatility very high in some cases”

Mistrust in tech valuations is growing, and gold and silver continue to fluctuate sharply. Many believe that expectations for companies, and the AI industry in particular, are exaggerated anyway.

February 9, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Alphabet, Meta, Amazon – doubts are growing about the extensive AI investments made by tech companies. In addition, new AI systems have recently been presented that could lead to significantly cheaper production of software services. “The AI company Anthropic introduced an AI productivity tool for corporate legal departments, which some experts have described as groundbreaking,” reports Commerzbank analyst Andreas Hürkamp. At the end of the week, the Nasdaq 100 recovered somewhat, but the bottom line was still a significant weekly loss. The Dow Jones, on the other hand, climbed above the “magic” 50,000-point mark. “There is a great deal of nervousness on the financial markets and volatility is very high in some cases – especially for precious metals, cryptocurrencies and tech stocks,” explains Ralf Umlauf from Helaba.

The DAX (DE0008469008) stood at 24,800 points on Monday morning, after closing at 24,721 on Friday and reaching a record high of 25,508 points in mid-January. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) continues to trade just below its all-time high. The price of gold stood at US$5,010 on Monday morning after fluctuating between US$4,330 and US$5,570 this year, while the price of silver stood at US$81 after fluctuating between US$72 and US$122. Bitcoin has recovered slightly but remains weak, currently trading at just over US$70,000.

“Just a phase of increased selectivity”

Martin Zurek from Weberbank sees it as a good sign that the price declines at some tech companies were accompanied by firmer prices in other segments. “There was no general risk aversion.” The recent weakness in the tech sector is not the end of the structural AI trend, but rather a phase of increased selectivity.

According to Markus Reinwand of Helaba, however, expectations were too high. He says that 57 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported their figures so far, with around 79 percent exceeding consensus estimates. In the tech sector, the figure is 55 percent, with as many as 97 percent exceeding profit estimates. “The fact that investors are still not satisfied and are shifting their portfolios shows how high expectations actually were,” he emphasizes. “Good is no longer enough—it has to be significantly better.” A consolidation course is now more likely than a continuation of the record chase. The bank sees the DAX at 25,000 points at the end of the year.  

Emerging markets as an alternative?

Ulrich Stephan of Deutsche Bank points to the sharp rise in interest in emerging market equities this year. “Driven by the weakness of the US dollar and the search for alternatives to US assets, investors have already channeled over US$39 billion into emerging market equity funds – the strongest net inflows in over 20 years,” he notes. The attractively valued Latin American stock markets in particular have benefited, as have South Korea and Taiwan in Asia. “Analysts have raised their earnings expectations for 2026 for companies listed on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by around eight percent over the past three months – overall, earnings growth expectations now stand at 22 percent,” explains Stephan.

Due to the temporary closure of US government agencies, some of the US figures expected last week will not be published until this week. In addition, the reporting season continues. In Germany, Siemens, Siemens Energy, Commerzbank, Deutsche Börse, and Mercedes-Benz, among others, are opening their books. In the US, most of the heavyweights in the technology sector have now presented their quarterly reports.

Important economic and business data

Wednesday, February 11

2:30 p.m. USA: January labor market figures. Despite strong economic growth, the labor market is likely to remain stagnant, according to Commerzbank. It expects job growth of 80,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent.

Thursday, February 12

8:00 a.m. United Kingdom: Fourth quarter GDP. DekaBank expects a moderate increase of 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter. For the year as a whole, GDP growth in 2025 is likely to be 1.4 percent – similar to the eurozone.

Friday, February 13

2:30 p.m. US: January consumer prices. According to Deutsche Bank, the decline in inflation is likely to have continued. The consensus expectation is for the annual inflation rate to fall from 2.7 percent to 2.5 percent. If the annual core rate also falls as expected from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent, this would be the lowest level in almost five years.