Weekly outlook: “Right now, there's complete chaos.”
More tariff disputes, and then the threat of war with Iran – there is no respite on the markets. And then there is the question of whether or not there is an AI bubble. Nvidia's figures, due on Wednesday, could reveal more.
February 23, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The new tariff threats from the US are causing nervousness. On Friday, the US Supreme Court prohibited US President Trump from imposing tariffs under an emergency law. Trump then announced global tariffs on imports into the US of 10 percent, then 15 percent. Added to this is the fear of a military conflict between the US and Iran. At USD 71, a barrel of Brent crude now costs around USD 10 more than at the beginning of the year.
“The rise in oil prices is not yet a cause for concern, but it has nevertheless had a negative impact on sentiment on the stock markets, as has the new uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy,” comments Helaba analyst Ulrich Wortberg. “Despite all the assurances from the US government, there is now a great deal of chaos,” says Berndt Fernow of LBBW, describing the situation. The customs agreements concluded to date have been deprived of their commercial basis. “However, the economic consequences of the decision are likely to remain limited for the time being, as market reactions suggest,” he explains. However, developments on the capital markets are being overshadowed by tensions surrounding Iran. “An initial military strike could take place at any time.”
Gold benefits
On Monday morning, the DAX (DE0008469008) stood at 25,130 points, down from 25,238 at Friday's close and 25,508 at its record high in January. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) is just below its all-time high. The US markets were able to react to the tariff decision on Friday and closed higher. The crisis mood is providing tailwind for the gold price, which is currently back at $5,132. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is losing ground again and is trading at $65,890.
“Stock market looks six to twelve months ahead”
“Under normal circumstances, one might expect a significantly weaker stock market,” says Tim Oechsner of Steubing AG. However, the key point this year is that capital markets are reacting less to headlines and more to fundamentals.
“Corporate earnings in Europe and the US have been robust, and the US economy and labor market are proving more resilient than expected.” Added to this are the key interest rate cuts. “As a result, the risks are present, but they are not dominating the market.”
Tim Oechsner
He therefore does not want to talk about a decoupling of the real economy and the stock market, but rather about different time horizons. “The stock market looks six to twelve months ahead, while the real economy reflects the present.” In Germany, moreover, the worst seems to be over. “The moderate valuation of the DAX compared to the overheated US indices is an important driver for the German stock market.”
“Valley of tears” left behind
According to DZ Bank, the latest purchasing managers' indices are further evidence that Germany may have gradually left the economic valley of tears behind. A recovery is on the horizon. “Although this is being bought at the price of an enormous increase in government debt for infrastructure and defense, it is at least having an effect,” explains analyst Christoph Swonke.
“Nvidia figures set the tone for the entire stock market”
As far as the reporting season is concerned, Nvidia's figures, due on Wednesday, are eagerly awaited. “These could set the tone for the AI sector, but also for the entire stock market,” notes Christian Henke of IG.
In addition, individual companies such as Salesforce, Dell, and Berkshire Hathaway are also opening their books. In Europe and Germany, Fresenius Medical Care, Bayer, Munich Re, Allianz, and BASF, among others, will be reporting. “The increased uncertainty resulting from geopolitical upheavals is likely to be clearly reflected in companies' financial results and outlooks,” says LBBW analyst Frank Klumpp.
Important economic and business data
Monday, February 23
10:00 a.m. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index for February.
Tuesday, February 24
4:00 p.m. USA: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February. The improved labor market report is providing support, explains DekaBank, which forecasts 89 points after 84.5 in the previous month.
Thursday, February 26
11:00 a.m. Eurozone: Economic Sentiment February. According to DekaBank, the two biggest areas of concern for the European economy are becoming less significant: the German economy and industry. This will be reflected in the EU Commission's Economic Sentiment.
Friday, February 27
8:00 a.m. Germany: Consumer prices February. According to Commerzbank estimates, the German inflation rate is likely to have fallen slightly from 2.1 to 2 percent in February, which is exactly in line with the ECB's target. The bank expects the core inflation rate to remain stable at 2.5 percent.
By Anna-Maria Borse, February 23, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the Author
Anna-Maria Borse is a finance and economics editor specializing in financial markets/stock exchanges and economic issues.
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