Gold: “Year of the Fire Horse”

Commodities analyst Michael Blumenroth outlines a gold market that is still searching for equilibrium after several turbulent weeks.

February 19, 2026. FRANKFURT (Xetra-Gold). In recent days, the precious metals markets have remained “busy” finding a new price equilibrium. Following the sharp price decline at the end of January/beginning of February, which followed record highs for gold, silver, and platinum, many market players appeared unsettled. In addition, many traders and investors may not have been able to fully liquidate their loss-making options and futures positions, which means that as soon as precious metal prices recover somewhat, these positions are likely to be reduced, which could limit further price recoveries at present.

In addition, the Year of the Fire Horse has begun in China – and I can report from experience that the Chinese like to go all out with fireworks during New Year celebrations – which means that the entire country is virtually in holiday mode for a week, putting the recently very robust demand for ETCs and physical precious metals from China on hold for the time being.

Subdued gold price development

Last week's US economic data painted a mixed picture. Slightly lower US consumer price inflation rates somewhat supported the view of many market participants that the US Federal Reserve would continue to cut key interest rates from June or July onwards after a pause in the spring. This resulted in lower yields on US government bonds, which in turn supported gold prices. Ultimately, however, the current lack of demand from China seems to have gained the upper hand, and as a result, price development has been rather subdued recently.

While gold prices stood at US$5,050 per ounce on Wednesday afternoon last week, they came under pressure again in the following days and fell to around US$4,655 per ounce on Monday morning, February 9. However, on the same day, they rose again by more than US$300 per ounce, and on Wednesday, February 11, gold was trading at just under US$5,120 at midday. In the following days, gold prices mostly fluctuated between US$4,900 and US$5,100, with the US$5,000 mark mostly in sight. At the time of writing on February 18 at 4 p.m., gold is trading at $4,990 per ounce.

Xetra Gold in weekly comparison

The Xetra Gold price moved in a similar fashion, as the euro/US dollar exchange rate had little impact on quotations: during normal trading hours, it fell from €137 per gram on Wednesday afternoon to €130.90 the following day. Here, too, the highest price in recent days was traded on February 11 at €138.10. After a setback to €131.50 on Tuesday this week, it is currently (Wednesday afternoon, 4 p.m.) trading at around €135.60 per gram.

Further inflation data from the US will be published on Friday, and China will be back in action on Monday next week after the New Year celebrations. The question remains as to what extent other market participants in the gold market still want to close their positions and when the market could be sufficiently adjusted for a possible rise in demand to provide stronger support for prices – which many market observers continue to regard as the base scenario.

I wish all readers continued strong nerves and hope that we all gradually get something resembling a sunny, warmer spring.