Weekly outlook: Oil price shock drags markets down

The rapid rise in oil and gas prices continues to cause stocks to slump. This is because the impact on inflation and the economy is becoming increasingly likely. Everything now depends on the duration of the war in Iran.

March 9, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). There is no sign of a quick end to the war in Iran, with oil and gas prices continuing to rise and weighing on the stock markets. “The war in the Middle East is likely to remain the dominant topic this week,” explains Commerzbank analyst Alexander Krämer. The decisive questions are how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively impassable and how higher energy prices will affect inflation and the economy. “It will probably remain volatile,” he says.

“Last week was already dominated by the war in the Middle East and, as a result, by high energy prices and the associated risk aversion,” notes Ralf Umlauf of Helaba. This morning, the issue is even more prominent due to the rise in oil prices. The fate of stock prices depends on the question of when and to what extent oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf will be possible again. “The longer the high price phase lasts, the greater the ‘damage’ to global economic prospects.”

Brent price above US$100

The price of a barrel of Brent has recently risen above $100, the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis. Asian stock markets slumped this morning. The DAX (DE0008469008) stood at 23,013 points on Monday morning, down from 23,642 at Friday's close. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) slipped below 600 points. The US markets also closed with significant losses on Friday. Gold (XC0009655157) continues to move sideways, with the price currently at $5,096.

“Recovery in Germany at risk”

“The cautiously optimistic outlook for German industry has become more uncertain again,” notes Carsten Brzeski of ING. The war in the Middle East and, above all, the rise in oil prices could significantly hamper industrial recovery. “Even though we are not (yet) in 2022, the rise in energy prices – if it continues – is a clear obstacle for German industry.” After all, energy-intensive industries account for around 17 percent of gross industrial value added and employ just under one million people.

And now Black Monday?

Christian Henke from IG even fears a “Black Monday.” “One week after the first air strike on Iran, the situation on the international oil markets is coming to a head,” he explains. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly noticeable, with some Gulf states reducing their oil production. “The 2022 oil price high of $126.34 for WTI oil is getting closer.” Things could also get uncomfortable on the stock markets today. “The lower end of the trading range for the German benchmark index at 23,021 points could be targeted by bears.” The next support level is the former upward gap at 22,607/22,764 points from early May 2025. 

“Short-term fluctuations, long-term constructive”

According to Weber Bank, however, the fundamental conditions for equities remain solid. "In the US, the reporting season for the fourth quarter of 2025 was very positive. In Europe, too, corporate earnings were solid overall, albeit with less momentum,“ explains Marthel Edouard. For the current year, the consensus is for corporate earnings to continue to rise globally. However, investor expectations are now very high. ”In the short term, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, interest rate expectations, and, in some cases, ambitious valuations is likely to cause further volatility," says Edouard. However, the conflict in the Middle East will not have a lasting negative impact on the global economy and stock markets. The bank remains constructive on stock markets in the medium term. “Broad diversification and a focus on high-quality companies with solid balance sheets and stable business models remain crucial.”

Important economic and business data

Monday, March 9

Germany: Gabler IPO. Submarine equipment supplier Gabler Group (DE000A421RZ9) goes public.

8:00 a.m. Germany: January industrial production.

Tuesday, March 10

8:00 a.m. Germany: January exports. Helaba forecasts a decline of 1.5 percent after an increase of 4 percent in the previous month.

Wednesday, March 11

1:30 p.m. USA: Consumer prices for February. In the USA, goods prices rose relatively sharply in December and January compared with the previous month, as DekaBank notes. Customs effects are likely to have played a major role in this. The bank assumes that the effects of tariffs will now fade into the background. It expects consumer prices to rise modestly in February.

Friday, March 13

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: Industrial production in January. The market expects an increase of 0.5 percent compared to December, following a decline of 1.4 percent in the previous month.

1:30 p.m. USA: Consumer spending price index excluding food and energy for January. According to Commerzbank, the core PCE rate for January, which has not yet been published, is likely to be at least 3.1 percent – significantly above consumer price inflation.